The Movies Are About to Change, Maybe Forever
The COVID-19 pandemic has already left its mark and will undoubtedly become a moment in history that will have a before and an after. One cultural experience that will undoubtedly see such a shift is going to the movies. Admittedly, cinema is a rather superficial cultural component but it is an interest of mine and I’m pretty sure we can all use a little extra distraction.
Where to start? Well, firstly we should acknowledge that the cinematic experience as we’ve known it was already changing. I wrote about this in a previous lowercase mag article; what COVID-19 has absolutely done is kicked those changes into 6th gear.
The now
The first sign of the pandemic’s effect on the movie biz was when theaters started moving towards 50% attendance. The idea was to implement a checkered seating system that would ensure every moviegoer had at least one vacant seat in front, behind, and to each side.
Soon after, we began seeing the first major features of the summer postpone their release date. First was the Bond movie No Time To Die, then other major films followed suit - Mulan, A Quiet Place 2, F9* (the Fast and Furious’ ridiculously titled ninth movie), and so on.
*On IMDb it’s officially titled F9, which feels like a joke but I swear that’s where they’re marketing landed. Ef-fucking-nine. Incredible stuff. Anyway, tangent over, onwards.
Right around the same time a bunch of movies of varying budgets that had either already been distributed or were just too close to the finish line started being released on VOD (video on demand, such as Apple TV, Google Store, Playstation Store, etc). These included: The Invisible Man ($7 m budget), Bloodshot ($45 m), Trolls World Tour ($90) - more on this one later - and Pixar’s Onward ($175 m) which was actually dropped on Disney’s own Disney+.
In a cruelly ironic twist, Universal’s Trolls World Tour might end-up being the 2020 movie with the most significant impact on the future of moviegoing.
Although the original Trolls movie made $300+ million worldwide, the roughly $100 million return on VOD by the sequel was deemed such a success that NBCUniversal CEO, Jeff Shell, stated in an interview that “as soon as theaters re-open we expect to release movies on both formats”. This statement landed with theatre owners about as well as you might expect.
AMC and Regal, two of the largest theatre chains in the US took to the offensive and publicly announced that they would not screen any future Universal films. In movie parlance, them be fightin’ words.
Like most proper after-school pissing contests, both sides quickly clarified their positions - NBCUniversal didn’t actually mean the thing that they said, or at least just not literally and AMC didn’t actually mean fuck Universal, just fuck any studio that isn’t going to have an exclusive theatrical window for major releases (usually around 90 days).
For all their Olympic backpedaling, NBCUniversal is A) not entirely wrong here, and B) actually has way more leverage than AMC or Regal.
So $100 million VOD might not be a $300+ haul, but let's not forget that those $100 m are not shared with theaters. Also, those $100 m are based on a first wave of industry direct to VOD and there is much to learn from this experience that could help improve that profit margin. There’s also the $20 price-point that can be tinkered with, and if you think that’s expensive then you haven’t gone to the movies with kids! There’s also a ton of wasted money in traditional marketing (like billboards and such) that if people are stuck at home, why the hell would you blow?
NBCUniversal is set to launch their own streaming service in 2020 called Peacock (lol, who came up with that name and how much they get paid?) At the moment, Peacock content is going to be primarily TV-centric, however very little is stopping them from expanding their catalog to include VOD new releases for premium rates.
Fun fact: a popular misconception is that once a studio, like say Disney, launches their own streaming services that all their content becomes exclusive to that platform. Not the case, there’s always pre-existing contractual obligations they need to abide by, hence why Marvel movies can still be found on Netflix. Or territorial issues, such as HBOmax not being available in Canada because of their partnership with Crave (Bell Media), which will provide original HBO content but not the whole HBOmax catalog, which means that Friends might still be available on Netflix Canada even though it won’t be on the US library… Anyway, it’s complicated.
Now before I start getting finger-wagged for the next part let me just say that, no I do not believe VOD will completely replace theatres. There are some major spectacles that are simply too valuable as a theatrical experience. I’m talking about the mega-franchises that rake in $500 m to a billion in revenue. In NBCUniversal’s case this includes the Fast and Furious, and Jurassic World movies. F9 (lol) was pushed back to 2021 off the bat to guarantee its theatrical release window. That shit ain’t going anywhere.
The future
I’ve been harping on about event movies taking over the cineplexes but the global pandemic might have accelerated this takeover pretty dramatically.
Let me first further clarify what it is that I mean by “event movies”. Think of FOMO (fear of missing out), but for movies. These are cinematic events that will be discussed at work or at this rate Zoom. Twitter will be meme-ing them, YouTube will be full of related top-tens, and I guess late night hosts will be awkwardly interviewing the stars from their closets (what a time to be alive). It’s what Game of Thrones so expertly did for the better part of a decade, become one with the monocultural - the thing we don’t want to miss out on.
Anyway, what I’m trying to say is that those movies will still find a home in theatres: the Marvels, Star Wars, Pixars, Disney remakes (okay, Disney won at Monopoly), the Mission Impossibles, James Bonds, Batmans, Pokemons and so on. Those IP driven franchises will sooner than later become the only shows at the cineplex.
The equation is simple, those brands already have a built-in fan base that basically guarantees they will make up their marketing and distribution costs by a quantic shit-ton.
I’ll go as far as to suggest that in time most mid-budgeted (say anything below $60-50 million) will eventually go straight to VOD or alternatively will almost exclusively be distributed on a streaming service. The effects of this on the industry will be significant. From the people who look to movie theatres for a paycheck to the awards circuit that makes up our understanding of prestige art in film, things will change.
Once upon a time a movie was released in theaters and that was the limit to which it could be experienced. The invention and subsequent takeover of televisions changed all that and now online streaming has pushed this further along. Change might be distressing, but it is inevitable. The same way travel, and a myriad of other aspects of our society will have a new-normal post COVID-19, so will the theater experience. 2020, only half way through, has already been a historical year but it’s still only going to last 365 days… no wait, 366 because it’s goddamn leap year too. Anyway, point being stay safe we’ll get past this.
Author’s noteI started writing this piece in May, I think, and like many of you it’s been a tough and sloooow Spring. Adapting to work-from-home is one thing, but keeping energy levels up in general has been all sorts of challenging. And then the murder of George Floyd happened and suddenly something I was already struggling to write felt so unimportant. Finishing this piece has taken way too long, and perhaps that feels obvious (the AMC v Universal part would have been relevant a month ago really), but alas, here we are. I hold movies near and dear to my heart but recently they’ve served more as a distraction from the insanity that is 2020, so if anything, I hope this was a nice detour from the apocalypse. Now, back to work people!
JC